Depending on the assumptions they put into their model, the number of deaths could be much higher or lower. If they assumed the April 2020 unemployment rate was just 10 percent, and that unemployment was half as harmful as has been seen in past recessions, their estimate fell to 8,315.
But if they assumed that unemployment reached 26.5 percent, which would be the highest estimate using a different definition of who was participating in the labor force, and also that the effects of losing a job in the pandemic were three times as deadly, their estimate rose to 201,968.
The researchers emphasized that some excess deaths are preventable if the proper policies are put in place.
“We urgently need policies that protect workers and lessen the harms of unemployment, particularly policies that are crafted to support those experiencing the unjust double burden of both COVID-19 and unemployment,” Matthay said.
Authors: Matthay was joined in the study by Kate A. Duchowny, PhD, MPH; and Alicia R. Riley, PhD, MPH, both of UCSF’s Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics; and Sandro Galea, MD, DrPh, of the Boston University School of Public Health.
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