The Covid-19 pandemic has been characterized in the public space by enormous fractures, mirroring societal divisions, that have often pitted the science that could inform better response to the pandemic against ideas driven by little more than ideology. This was immensely complicated by President Trump’s assumption of strong positions—for example, on the purported utility of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid-19—that had no basis in scientific fact. Such highly visible support for ideas that were simply wrong, at a time when the world needed clarity without false hope, pushed science to the fore to an unprecedented degree. “Follow the science” became a rallying cry and was part of then-candidate Biden’s appeal to voters. He promised that he would take a still-evolving Covid-19 science seriously if elected president, in stark contrast to the then-incumbent.
Few would argue that science should not be at the heart of decision-making during a pandemic. There is, however, and appropriately, a growing body of work that discusses what science can, and cannot do. As we look to learn from the Covid-19 moment, it seems worth asking—what are the conditions under which we may be suitably cautious about the science? Three principal conditions come to our mind.
First, we should be cautious about science informing decisions about particularly complex systems, where science can inform our understanding of particular aspects, but where these narrow aspects are only part of a larger and more intertwined whole. This was perhaps most clearly borne out during the pandemic when it came to decisions around keeping K-12 schools open. The science showed relatively quickly that children were at low risk from the virus, and did not much influence transmission of Covid-19 in the general populations. However, the issue of school opening went beyond a single scientific question. Certainly, there were inputs related to the estimated risks of viral transmission, but there were also risk perceptions and issues around the protection of teachers that transcended ready scientific solutions. Scientific engagement on issues that involve different groups with diverse interests need to be focused on particular questions (e.g., how much do children transmit the virus?) but embedded in larger and more complex societal decision-making.
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